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How the developing world will change global business thinking

Posted by Rohit Talwar | 4 Apr 2011

As well as responding to new competitors and new opportunities, the rise of emerging markets also means organizations must think differently, argues leading futurist Rohit Talwar.

As well as responding to new competitors and new opportunities, the rise of emerging markets also means organizations must think differently, argues leading futurist Rohit Talwar.

We’re heading into what could be the most turbulent decade most organizations have experienced. Against this backdrop, there are some fundamental mega-trends and change-drivers business leaders must be aware of when developing future strategies. One of the most important is the challenge of emerging markets.

The first point to note is that global political power is shifting towards developing markets — China in particular. The developing world is no longer prepared to work to the West’s agenda.

This is having a huge impact in virtually every global political and economic institution, such as the IMF, and many corporations are questioning where to position themselves geographically to be closest to the seat of real power. Increasing numbers are moving directly to Beijing, Singapore and locations in the Middle East, depending on where the real decisions are being made in their industries.

There has also been a phenomenal flow of assets from the developed world into the developing world, which will continue apace or accelerate. We have not seen the full impact yet, but as well as creating new competitors, new opportunities and new markets, it is also going to mean new thinking.

We are likely to see a set of potential new empires emerge. Alongside the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), countries to watch in the next 10 years include Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines. Others like Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh should already be top 10 economies based on their populations, and are creating the physical and economic infrastructure for potential fast-track growth.

But perhaps the most important trend is the uneven distribution of hope. In the West, governments are largely still talking about the problems and issues they need to address. In the developing world, however, no one wants to discuss the recession, principally because most didn’t have one — China and India certainly didn’t — and many emerging economies are now posting growth figures of up to 12%. The focus in these locations is far more on what they’re moving towards: new developments in education, social and physical infrastructure, and the business environment.

Naturally, that has a major impact on decisions being made by corporations, who are looking to find which countries can make things happen quickest. As a business leader, you should be asking: Where are the best opportunities for us in the next few years? Which countries provide the most support to foreign entrants? What will it take to succeed? How long will it take to achieve profitability? Where does top talent want to work?

The global landscape we’re operating in will be significantly different, with different rates of growth and different opportunities. To operate effectively in these very different environments, it is essential for businesses to establish a portfolio of strategies to deliver the agility they need to succeed, and to recognize that a single approach won’t work across all emerging markets.

Rohit Talwar is a globally acclaimed futurist and the founder of Fast Future Research. He advises clients such as Amadeus, GlaxoSmithKline, Halliburton, ING, Intel, Novartis, Orange and Shell on futures research, scenario planning and strategic innovation.

Do you agree with this viewpoint? Have your say by commenting below. See also Rohit Talwar’s keynote speech at a recent Fujitsu Executive Discussion Evening, on planning for the next decade. (You must be signed in to our Members’ Area to view the video.)


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